Aston Villa at Burnley Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Burnley vs Aston Villa

In a Premier League clash on Sunday, May 10, 2026, Burnley hosts Aston Villa at 9:00 AM ET. The stakes are high for both sides, but the data points strongly toward a tight, defensive battle. Burnley enters with an abysmal 0-8 record in their last 10 games, sitting on an 8-game losing streak. However, their defense has been a beacon of hope, ranking #1 in the league in shots allowed (0.9628/game) and shots on target allowed (0.335/game).

Aston Villa, traveling with a 1-6 record in their last 10 and a 4-game losing streak, brings an offense that averages just 0.7 points per game. With key players like Zian Flemming and Loum Tchaouna averaging only 0.3 goals per game, Burnley's stingy defense is perfectly positioned to exploit Villa's scoring drought. The spread of Burnley +1 offers excellent value given Villa's inability to consistently break down low-block defenses.

Key Injuries Impact

Aston Villa is decimated by injuries, particularly in midfield and defense. Out include Emiliano Martínez (GK), Boubacar Kamara (DM), Youri Tielemans (CM), Jadon Sancho (LW), Alysson (RW), Amadou Onana (DM), Harvey Elliott (AM), and Matty Cash (RB). The absence of Matty Cash and the midfield trio of Kamara, Tielemans, and Onana severely weakens Villa's ability to control possession and defend wide areas, further favoring Burnley's home resilience.

By The Numbers

Stat	Burnley (Home)	Aston Villa (Away)
Record (L10)	0-8	1-6
Points Per Game	0.6	0.7
Opponent PPG Allowed	1.9	1.4
Current Streak	L8	L4
Shots Allowed Rank	#1 (0.96/game)	#5 (2.11 tackles/game)

Odds Analysis

The consensus odds have Burnley as +1 underdogs with a total of O/U 2.5. The moneyline sits at Burnley +460 and Aston Villa -174. While Villa is favored to win, the +1 spread is crucial because Villa's offense is struggling to find rhythm, averaging only 0.7 PPG. Burnley's defense allows just 0.1176 goals per game, suggesting a low-scoring affair where a single goal could cover the spread or result in a push. The low total of 2.5 reinforces the expectation of a defensive grind.

Player Props to Watch

• Gabriel Magalhaes Goals+assists Over/Under 0.5 (-456): At -456, this prop is expensive, reflecting confidence in the defender. Given Villa's 0.7 PPG and Burnley's weak offense (0.6 PPG), Magalhaes contributing to a goal is a solid, albeit pricey, option.
• Mateus Fernandes Passes Attempted Over 44.5 (+100): A +100 line suggests value. With Villa missing Tielemans and Kamara, Fernandes may see increased possession duties, making the over appealing.
• Mads Hermansen Passes Attempted Over 31.5 (+100): Burnley's goalkeeper is likely to see limited action due to Villa's low scoring output, but the over at +100 is a safe bet given Burnley's tendency to play out from the back against Villa's midfield.

Best Bets

1. Burnley +1 (Spread): Best Bet. Burnley's defense is #1 in shots allowed. Villa's offense is in freefall (0.7 PPG). A 1-0 or 1-1 result covers the +1 spread.
2. Under 2.5 (Total): Both teams average less than 1 point per game in the last 10. Burnley allows 0.1176 goals/game. The total of 2.5 is generous, and the Under is the logical play.
3. Mateus Fernandes Passes Attempted Over 44.5 (+100): Value pick. Villa's midfield changes increase his workload.

Prediction

Burnley 1-0 Aston Villa. Burnley's #1 ranked defense will neutralize Villa's struggling attack. With Villa missing key midfielders and defenders, they will struggle to create high-quality chances. Burnley, despite their poor form, will secure a narrow victory or draw, covering the +1 spread.

Updated Sunday, May 10, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →