Bayer Leverkusen at VfB Stuttgart Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Stuttgart's Home Struggles vs. Leverkusen's Attack

In a pivotal Bundesliga clash on Saturday, May 9, 2026, VfB Stuttgart hosts Bayer Leverkusen at the MHPArena. The matchup features a team on a slide against a side with momentum. Stuttgart has struggled significantly in recent weeks, posting a 3-7 record in their last 10 games and sitting on a five-game losing streak. Their offense averages 2.1 goals per game, but their defense has been equally porous, allowing the same 2.1 goals per game.

On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen enters with a 4-5 record in their last 10 matches but comes off a win, providing a psychological boost. The visitors boast a more potent attack, averaging 2.3 goals per game, while their defense has tightened up, allowing just 1.6 goals per game. The disparity in defensive stability suggests Leverkusen is better positioned to control the game's tempo.

By The Numbers

Statistical analysis highlights the contrasting forms of both teams. While Stuttgart's home field advantage is often a factor, their recent inability to keep clean sheets makes the Over a compelling option.

Statistic	VfB Stuttgart (Home)	Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Last 10 Record	3-7	4-5
Goals Per Game (Scored)	2.1	2.3
Goals Per Game (Allowed)	2.1	1.6
Current Streak	L5	W1

Key Injuries

VfB Stuttgart's defensive depth is severely tested. They are missing five defenders, including Finn Jeltsch, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Ameen Al-Dakhil, and Josha Vagnoman. Midfielder Mirza Catovic and wingers Jamie Leweling, Lazar Jovanovic, and Badredine Bouanani are also out. This exodus forces Stuttgart to rely heavily on their remaining backline against a Leverkusen attack led by Patrik Schick, who is averaging an impressive 1.5 goals per game.

Odds Analysis

The consensus odds present a tight contest. VfB Stuttgart is listed as a slight favorite on the spread at -0.25, with moneylines of +123 for Stuttgart and +194 for Leverkusen. The total is set at a high 3.75, indicating an expectation of offensive output. However, SportsClaw's model sees value in the Over 3.5 line. With a Poisson probability of 67.5% for over 3.5 goals and a no-vig market value of 49.7%, the model identifies a +17.8% edge on the Over.

Player Props to Watch

Several player props offer interesting angles based on recent performance trends:

• Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen): With 1.5 goals per game, Schick is the focal point of the Leverkusen attack. Look for him to challenge the goal scorer lines.
• Joshua Kimmich (Bayer Leverkusen): Averaging 101.5 passes, Kimmich is a safe play for volume stats, particularly on the Over 101.5 passes line.
• Manuel Neuer (Bayer Leverkusen): Given Stuttgart's scoring rate of 2.1 PPG, Neuer is expected to be busy. The Over 2.5 goalie saves is a logical prop play.
• Chris Führich (VfB Stuttgart): Leading Stuttgart with 0.8 goals per game, Führich is the primary threat against a Leverkusen defense that, while improved, faces high shot volume.

Best Bets

1. Over 3.5 Goals (SportsClaw Model Pick): Confidence: STRONG. Edge: +17.8%. The combination of Stuttgart's leaky defense (2.1 GA/G) and Leverkusen's high-powered offense (2.3 GF/G) makes this the highest-value play.
2. Bayer Leverkusen +194 (Moneyline): Value Pick. Stuttgart's five-game losing streak and defensive injuries make them vulnerable. Leverkusen's recent win and superior defensive metrics (1.6 GA/G) provide a safe route to victory.
3. Joshua Kimmich Over 101.5 Passes: Kimmich's control of midfield is vital for Leverkusen. The +100 odds on this volume prop offer solid value given his consistent output.

Prediction

VfB Stuttgart will fight hard at home, with Chris Führich and Ermedin Demirovic likely to find the net against a Leverkusen defense missing key contributors. However, Patrik Schick and Robert Andrich will exploit the gaps in Stuttgart's backline. We predict a 3-2 victory for Bayer Leverkusen in a game that goes over the total.

Updated Saturday, May 9, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →