Burnley at Everton Odds, Picks & Prediction
Everton will win 2-0 against Burnley. Everton's defense allows just 1.2 PPG on a W1 streak with 4-6 L10 record, exploiting Burnley's porous defense that allows 2.3 PPG, #1 in assists allowed (1.0645/game), #1 shots on target (1.4655/game), and 2-8 L10 slump.
Quick Facts
- Matchup
- Burnley at Everton
- Date
- Tuesday, March 3, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Spread
- Everton -0.5
- Total
- O/U 2.5
- Moneyline
- Everton -175 / Burnley +500
- Best Bet
- Everton -0.5
- Prediction
- Everton 2-0
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | away | home | line | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Everton -0.5 | Spread | |
| - | - | O/U 2.5 | Total | |
| +500 | -175 | - | Moneyline |
Matchup Preview
Everton welcomes struggling Burnley to Goodison Park on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET. The Toffees enter on a W1 streak with a 4-6 record over their last 10 matches, scoring 1.3 PPG while allowing a stingy 1.2 PPG. Burnley, conversely, limps in on a L2 skid and dismal 2-8 L10, scoring 1.4 PPG but hemorrhaging 2.3 PPG defensively.
Head-to-head favors low drama: recent meetings ended 0-0 (Everton @ Burnley) and 1-0 Everton (Burnley @ Everton). Burnley's defensive woes shine in analytics—allowing assists at #1 rank (1.0645/game to ALL positions), shots on target #1 (1.4655/game), shots #3 (1.2156/game), and clearances #3 (3.3514/game). Everton allows tackles #2 (2.1981/game to ALLs), bolstering their backline solidity.
Burnley's key threats Jaidon Anthony and Zian Flemming each average 1 goal/game (high: 1), but face Everton's stout unit.
By The Numbers
| Stat | Everton (Home) | Burnley (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Record (L10) | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| PPG | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Opp PPG | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
Key Injuries
No significant injuries reported for either team, setting up a full-strength clash.
Odds Analysis
Consensus odds heavily tilt toward Everton: -0.5 spread, -175 moneyline vs Burnley +500, O/U 2.5 total. The pricing reflects Everton's form edge and Burnley's road struggles, with value on the hosts given H2H shutouts and defensive stats.
Player Props to Watch
- Jaidon Anthony (Burnley): 1 goals/game (high: 1)—likely held in check by Everton's 1.2 PPG allowed.
- Zian Flemming (Burnley): 1 goals/game (high: 1)—trending but vs elite edges.
Watch Everton attackers exploit Burnley's #1-ranked allowances in shots on target and assists.
Best Bets
- Everton -0.5: Hosts' 1.2 PPG defense vs Burnley's 2.3 allowed and 2-8 L10 makes this a lock (-0.5 spread aligns with ML favoritism).
- Under 2.5: Everton's 1.3/1.2 PPG, Burnley's inefficiency, H2H 0-0 & 1-0 scream low total.
- Everton ML -175: Safe play on W1 streak vs L2 Burnley slump, backed by defensive edges.
Prediction
Everton 2, Burnley 0. Toffees capitalize on Burnley's #1 defensive rankings in key metrics for a clean-sheet victory.
Updated Tuesday, March 3, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →
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