BUR at Arsenal Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Arsenal vs. Burnley

The Premier League season concludes with a clash between two teams in vastly different forms. Arsenal (BUR at Arsenal) arrives at the Emirates Stadium riding a high-energy 5-game winning streak, having gone 7-3 in their last 10 matches. Their defense has been formidable, allowing just 0.7 points per game (PPG), while their offense maintains a steady 1.6 PPG.

Conversely, Burnley (BUR) is struggling significantly, sitting on a 3-game losing streak and holding a dismal 1-9 record in their last 10 games. The Clarets are averaging only 0.9 PPG while conceding 2.1 PPG, making them vulnerable against Arsenal's balanced attack featuring Viktor Gyökeres, Leandro Trossard, and Bukayo Saka.

By The Numbers: Arsenal vs. Burnley

Stat	Arsenal (Home)	Burnley (Away)
Last 10 Record	7-3	1-9
Points Per Game (Offense)	1.6	0.9
Points Allowed (Defense)	0.7	2.1
Current Streak	W5	L3

Key Injuries

There are no significant injuries reported for either Arsenal or Burnley heading into this Monday night fixture. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups, which heavily favors the home side given their superior depth and current momentum.

Odds Analysis

The sportsbooks have priced Arsenal as heavy favorites, with the moneyline sitting at -910 compared to Burnley's +2000. The spread is set at Arsenal -2.5, reflecting the significant gap in form between the two sides. The Over/Under is set at 3.5 goals, suggesting a moderate-scoring game, though Arsenal's offensive consistency (1.6 PPG) vs. Burnley's leaky defense (2.1 allowed) could push the total higher.

Player Props to Watch

• Declan Rice Tackles Over 1.5 (+100): Rice is a key defensive anchor. Given Burnley's struggles to control possession and their 2.1 PPG allowed average, Rice will likely be heavily involved in breaking up plays.
• Bukayo Saka Shots Assisted Over 2.5 (+100): Saka averages 0.3 goals per game with a high of 2, but his playmaking ability makes the shots assisted prop attractive against a Burnley defense that concedes frequently.
• Leandro Trossard Dribbles Attempted Over 2.5 (+100): Trossard contributes 0.4 goals per game and is a constant threat on the wing, likely attempting more than 2.5 dribbles against Burnley's inconsistent defensive line.

Best Bets

1. Arsenal -2.5 Spread: With a 5-game win streak and a +1.0 PPG differential (1.6 scored - 0.7 allowed) compared to Burnley's -1.2 differential, Arsenal is well-positioned to win by 3+ goals.
2. Declan Rice Tackles Over 1.5 (+100): A solid value bet on a key midfielder who will face consistent pressure from an attacking Burnley team trying to avoid a heavy defeat.
3. Arsenal Moneyline (-910): For conservative bettors, Arsenal's dominance at home (7-3 L10) makes them a lock, though the return is lower.

Prediction

Arsenal's defensive solidity (0.7 allowed PPG) combined with their offensive depth should neutralize Burnley's 0.9 PPG scoring output. We predict a clean sheet for Arsenal and a comfortable victory. Final Score Prediction: Arsenal 3, Burnley 0.

Updated Monday, May 18, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →