BUR at LEE Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Leeds United vs. Burnley

On Friday, May 1, 2026, the EPL spotlight turns to a clash between Leeds United (LEE) and Burnley (BUR). While Leeds enters this fixture with a struggling 3-7 record in their last 10 games, they remain the stronger side statistically, averaging 1.4 points per game (PPG) against an opponent averaging just 0.9 PPG. Burnley is riding a three-game losing streak, having conceded 2.1 goals per game on average in that span.

The head-to-head history favors Leeds, who have dominated the last three meetings, including a 4-0 victory and a 2-0 win, with only one draw (1-1) interrupting their dominance. Leeds' ability to control possession and create chances is evident in their passing metrics, with players like Martin Dubravka and Jayden Bogle averaging over 36 and 33 passes respectively. Meanwhile, Burnley's defense has been porous, allowing high shot volumes, making Leeds' offensive output of 1.4 PPG a significant advantage.

By The Numbers

Here is a direct comparison of the key metrics for both teams based on the last 10 games:

Stat	Leeds United (Home)	Burnley (Away)
Record (L10)	3-7	1-9
Points Per Game	1.4	0.9
Opponent PPG	1.6	2.1
Current Streak	L1	L3

Key Injuries

No significant injuries have been reported for either Leeds United or Burnley, ensuring that both managers can field their strongest available lineups. This full-strength availability highlights the tactical disparity, as Leeds' midfield depth, anchored by players like Anton Stach and Gabriel Gudmundsson, should control the tempo against Burnley's tiring defense.

Odds Analysis

The consensus odds reflect Leeds' status as the clear favorite, with the spread set at LEE -1.5. The moneyline sits at LEE -260, indicating a roughly 72% implied probability of a Leeds win, while Burnley is priced at +725, suggesting a low probability of an upset. The total is set at O/U 2.75, which aligns with Leeds' scoring rate of 1.4 PPG and Burnley's defensive struggles. Given that Burnley has lost three straight games, the market expects Leeds to secure a comfortable margin of victory.

Player Props to Watch

Several player props offer value based on recent performance trends:

• James Justin (Goals+assists): The line is set at 0.5 with the Over at -234. Justin's consistent involvement in attack makes this a high-probability pick.
• Anton Stach (Tackles): With the line at 2 tackles, the Over is available at +100. Stach is a key defensive midfielder who should see plenty of action.
• Quilindschy Hartman (Tackles): The Over 2.5 tackles is priced at +100, reflecting Burnley's need to disrupt Leeds' possession play.
• Martin Dubravka (Passes attempted): The Over 36.5 passes is available at +100, leveraging Leeds' possession-heavy style.
• Jayden Bogle (Passes attempted): The Over 33.5 passes is also +100, highlighting his role in build-up play.

Best Bets

1. James Justin Over 0.5 Goals+Assists (-234): Justin has been a consistent contributor, and facing a Burnley defense that allows 2.1 PPG, his involvement in scoring plays is highly likely.
2. Leeds United -1.5 Spread: Leeds has dominated the recent head-to-head matchups, and their 1.4 PPG scoring rate against Burnley's 2.1 PPG defensive allowance suggests a multi-goal victory.
3. Martin Dubravka Over 36.5 Passes Attempted (+100): Leeds controls possession, and Dubravka's average of 36.5 passes makes this a solid value bet at even money.

Prediction

Leeds United is expected to win 2-1. Their superior offensive metrics and head-to-head dominance outweigh their recent poor form, especially against a Burnley side that is struggling to keep clean sheets. The key to this game will be Leeds' ability to maintain possession and exploit the spaces left by Burnley's defensive transitions.

Updated Friday, May 1, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →