Burnley at Arsenal Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Arsenal Dominates Burnley in Monday Night Clash

Arsenal welcomes Burnley to the Emirates Stadium on Monday, May 18, 2026, with a clear advantage in form and momentum. The Gunners arrive with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games and are riding a five-game winning streak. In contrast, Burnley is in freefall, sitting at 0-8 in their last 10 and enduring an eight-game losing streak.

The offensive disparity is stark. Arsenal averages 1.6 goals per game while allowing just 0.7. Burnley struggles offensively, scoring only 0.6 PPG, and has been porous defensively, allowing 1.9 goals per game. The consensus odds reflect this gap, with Arsenal favored by 2.5 goals and listed at -952 on the moneyline.

Key attackers for Arsenal like Viktor Gyökeres (0.4 goals/game) and Leandro Trossard (0.4 goals/game) are poised to exploit Burnley’s league-leading defensive vulnerabilities. Burnley allows the fewest shots (0.9628/game) and shots on target (0.335/game) in the league, but when they do concede, they struggle to keep clean sheets.

By The Numbers: Team Comparison

Stat	Arsenal (Home)	Burnley (Away)
Record (L10)	7-3	0-8
Goals Per Game	1.6	0.6
Goals Allowed Per Game	0.7	1.9
Current Streak	W5	L8
Key Scorer	V. Gyökeres (0.4/g)	Z. Flemming (0.6/g)

Key Injuries

No significant injuries are reported for either Arsenal or Burnley as of Monday. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups, which favors Arsenal's depth and tactical cohesion.

Odds Analysis: Why Arsenal -2.5 is the Smart Play

The spread of Arsenal -2.5 suggests the market expects a comfortable victory. Given Burnley’s inability to stop attacks (allowing 1.9 PPG) and Arsenal’s consistent scoring (1.6 PPG), a multi-goal margin is highly probable. The moneyline price of -952 offers little value for a straight win, making the spread the primary focus. Additionally, the total of O/U 3.5 leans toward an over, as Arsenal’s attack should outpace Burnley’s low-scoring output.

Player Props to Watch

• Declan Rice Tackles Over 1.5 (+100): Rice is a defensive anchor. Against Burnley’s attack, he is likely to accumulate tackles to disrupt their rhythm.
• Bukayo Saka Shots Assisted Over 2.5 (+100): With Arsenal’s high possession stats and Saka’s creative role, he is well-positioned to provide assists.
• Joe Worrall Fouls Over 0.5 (+134): Burnley’s defense often relies on tactical fouls to stop counters, making Worrall a candidate to commit a foul.

Best Bets

• 1. Arsenal -2.5 (Spread): The most data-backed pick. Burnley’s 0-8 L10 form and Arsenal’s W5 streak point to a dominant performance.
• 2. Over 3.5 (Total): Arsenal’s offense (1.6 PPG) combined with Burnley’s leaky defense (1.9 PPG allowed) suggests a high-scoring affair.
• 3. Declan Rice Tackles Over 1.5 (+100): A safe prop play given Rice’s role and Burnley’s attacking style.

Prediction

Arsenal is expected to control the game from start to finish. Burnley’s defense, while efficient at limiting shot volume, concedes high-quality chances. Arsenal’s firepower, led by Gyökeres and Trossard, should capitalize on these opportunities. We predict a 3-0 victory for Arsenal, covering the -2.5 spread comfortably.

Updated Monday, May 18, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →