Burnley at Leeds United Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Leeds United vs Burnley

On Friday, May 1, 2026, Leeds United hosts Burnley in a Premier League clash that highlights the stark contrast between a struggling home side and a defensively stout but offensively barren away team. Leeds enters the match with a 3-5 record in their last 10 games, currently riding a one-game losing streak. However, their underlying metrics suggest resilience, particularly in defense, where they allow just 0.5 points per game.

Burnley, conversely, is in freefall with an 0-8 record in their last 10 outings, sitting on an eight-game losing streak. The Clarets are averaging a mere 0.6 goals per game while conceding 1.9. Despite the poor form, Burnley's defense is elite, ranking #1 in shots allowed (0.9628/game) and #3 in goals allowed (0.1176/game). This suggests a tight, low-scoring affair where Leeds' slight offensive edge might be the difference.

Key Injuries Impacting the Lineup

Leeds United is dealing with significant absences that could hinder their attacking output. Notably, Noah Okafor (Left Winger) is out, which removes a player averaging 1 goal per game. Additionally, Joe Rodon (Centre-Back), Daniel James (Right Winger), and key midfielders Anton Stach and Ilia Gruev are all listed as out. The absence of Stach is particularly notable given his role in defensive transitions.

Burnley's injury list is less prominent in the provided data, but their lack of goal-scoring threat remains their biggest concern, with only Zian Flemming contributing 0.3 goals per game among the listed key players.

By The Numbers

Here is how the two sides compare based on recent performance metrics:

Stat	Leeds United (Home)	Burnley (Away)
Record (L10)	3-5	0-8
Points Per Game (PPG)	1.3	0.6
Opponent PPG (Defense)	0.5	1.9
Current Streak	L1	L8
Shots Allowed Rank	N/A	#1 (0.9628/game)
Goals Allowed Rank	N/A	#3 (0.1176/game)

Odds Analysis

The consensus odds favor Leeds United heavily. The Moneyline is set at Leeds United -260, implying a high probability of a home win. The Spread is Leeds United -1.5, suggesting the bookmakers expect a comfortable victory, while the Total is set at O/U 2.75, indicating a lean toward a lower-scoring game given Burnley's defensive solidity and Leeds' recent struggles to score consistently (1.3 PPG).

Player Props to Watch

• James Justin Goals+assists Over/Under: The line is set at 0.5 (Over -234). Given Leeds' reliance on their defense to create chances, Justin is a strong candidate to contribute.
• Anton Stach Tackles Over/Under: With Stach out for Leeds, this prop likely applies to his counterpart or a similar midfielder. The line is 2 (Over +100), offering value if Burnley maintains possession against Leeds' midfield.
• Martin Dubravka Passes_attempted Over/Under: Set at 36.5 (Over +100). Burnley's low shot allowance suggests their goalkeeper may see less action, but pass volume remains a key metric.
• Quilindschy Hartman Tackles Over/Under: 2.5 tackles (Over +100). A solid prop for a midfielder in a tight game.

Best Bets

Based on the data, here are the top three recommendations:

1. Leeds United -1.5 Spread: Burnley's 0-8 streak and lack of offensive firepower (0.6 PPG) make it difficult for them to cover a -1.5 spread, especially away from home. Even a 1-0 or 2-0 win covers if the line is -1.5.
2. Under 2.75 Total: Burnley allows only 0.1176 goals per game and ranks #1 in shots allowed. Leeds averages 1.3 PPG. The combination of a weak Burnley attack and a disciplined Leeds defense points to a low-scoring game.
3. James Justin Goals+assists Over 0.5 (-234): Despite the high price, Justin's involvement in Leeds' defensive transitions makes him a reliable source of goal contributions. The -234 price reflects his consistency.

Prediction

Leeds United will win this matchup. The combination of Burnley's eight-game losing streak and Leeds' home-field advantage, despite key injuries, gives Leeds the edge. We predict a 2-0 victory for Leeds United.

Updated Friday, May 1, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →