Burnley at Nottingham Forest Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview

Nottingham Forest come into this home match as the clear market favorite at -195 on the moneyline, and the numbers back that pricing. Forest have gone 2-2 in their last 10, which is not dominant on the surface, but their underlying scoring profile is strong: 1.8 goals per game scored and just 0.3 goals per game allowed. That defensive number is the biggest separator in this matchup.

Burnley, meanwhile, are in brutal form. They are 0-7 in their last 10, riding a seven-match losing streak, and averaging only 0.7 goals per game while conceding 2.0 per game. When a side is scoring under one goal per match and allowing two, it becomes very difficult to trust them away from home against a favorite laying -1.5 goals.

Forest also have more current attacking production among the listed key players. Neco Williams, Morgan Gibbs-White, and Igor Jesus are each producing 0.5 goals per game, with a game high of 1 goal. Burnley have only one listed player at that level, Zian Flemming at 0.5 goals per game, while Florentino, Hjalmar Ekdal, Jaidon Anthony, and Bashir Humphreys are all listed at 0 goals per game.

The consensus total is set at 2.5, which creates an interesting tension. Forest's attack says they can do damage, but their defensive profile and Burnley's lack of finishing point toward a lower-scoring game script. A 2-0 type of result fits both the team form and the market shape.

By The Numbers

Key Injuries

Nottingham Forest do have notable absences. Chris Wood is out at center-forward, which matters because it removes an established central attacking option. Forest are also missing Nicolò Savona, Willy Boly, Jair Cunha, Stefan Ortega, John Victor, and Dan Ndoye. Even with that injury list, the recent defensive numbers remain elite at 0.3 goals allowed per game, which suggests the overall structure is still holding up.

No Burnley injuries were listed in the provided data, but their team form remains the bigger issue. A side on a L7 streak with 0.7 goals per game simply has not shown enough attacking consistency to punish Forest's absences.

Odds Analysis

The market is telling a clear story. Nottingham Forest -1.5 paired with a -195 moneyline says the favorite is expected to control this match rather than simply edge it. Burnley at +500 are priced as a long shot, and that aligns with the recent form gap: Forest are +1.1 goals per game better offensively and +1.7 goals per game better defensively based on the listed numbers.

The total of 2.5 is right on the edge. Forest average 1.8 scored and Burnley allow 2.0, which supports home offense. But Burnley score only 0.7 and Forest allow just 0.3, which supports a Burnley team total under style of angle. That is why the cleanest projection is Nottingham Forest 2, Burnley 0.

Player Props to Watch

The available prop board provided does not cleanly match this EPL fixture. The listed props include names such as John Stones, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Declan Rice, and Viktor Gyokeres, which are not tied to Burnley or Nottingham Forest in the supplied matchup data. Because of that mismatch, there is no strong case to force an official player prop tied to this game.

What is useful from the defensive-vs-position data is that Burnley rank #1 in shots allowed at 0.9628 per game to ALLs, #1 in shots on target allowed at 0.335, #2 in assists allowed at 0.1295, and #3 in goals allowed at 0.1176. That profile supports attacking production from Forest players, especially creators like Morgan Gibbs-White and finishers in the home front line. If a match-specific Forest shot or goal involvement prop becomes available close to kickoff, Burnley's defensive allowance profile would support looking over.

Best Bets

• Nottingham Forest -1.5 — Burnley are 0-7 in their last 10, on a L7 run, scoring just 0.7 goals per game and allowing 2.0. Forest are the better side on both ends.
• Burnley Team Total Under lean / Under 2.5 consideration — Forest are allowing only 0.3 goals per game. A 2-0 result is the cleanest fit, though the total is tight at 2.5.
• Nottingham Forest moneyline (-195) — If you want a lower-risk angle than the spread, the straight win still tracks with the major form edge and Burnley's seven-match skid.

Prediction

Pick: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Burnley. Forest have the better recent scoring rate at 1.8 goals per game, the far better defensive profile at 0.3 allowed, and they face a Burnley side stuck on a seven-match losing streak. Even with the injury list, the home side has the stronger current form, the stronger market support, and the cleaner path to controlling the match.

Updated Sunday, April 19, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →