FC St. Pauli at RB Leipzig Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli

In this Bundesliga clash on Saturday, May 9, 2026, RB Leipzig (Home) faces a struggling FC St. Pauli (Away). The data paints a clear picture: Leipzig is the dominant force, with a 5-2 record in their last 10 games compared to St. Pauli's winless 0-5 streak. Leipzig averages 2.0 points per game while allowing just 1.1 goals, whereas St. Pauli struggles offensively with only 0.4 points per game and concedes 2.6 goals per game.

Despite a recent loss streak of 1 game, Leipzig's offensive depth is evident. Players like Yan Diomande (0.5 goals/game), Conrad Harder (0.3 goals/game), and Max Finkgrafe (0.3 goals/game) provide consistent scoring threats. St. Pauli, on the other hand, has lost 5 straight games, highlighting their current form issues.

By The Numbers: Team Comparison

Stat	RB Leipzig (Home)	FC St. Pauli (Away)
Record (L10)	5-2	0-5
Points Per Game	2.0	0.4
Opponent PPG Allowed	1.1	2.6
Current Streak	L1	L5

Key Injuries Impact

FC St. Pauli is decimated by injuries, which significantly impacts their ability to compete. Out for St. Pauli:

• Defensive Line: Jannik Robatsch (CB), Tomoya Ando (CB), David Nemeth (CB), Eric Smith (CB), Karol Mets (CB), Manolis Saliakas (RB), Lars Ritzka (LB).
• Midfield: Mathias Rasmussen (CM), James Sands (DM), Xaver Schlager (CM) for Leipzig.
• Attack: Mathias Pereira Lage (LW), Andréas Hountondji (CF), Ricky-Jade Jones (CF).
• Goalkeeper: Simon Spari (GK) is out.

RB Leipzig also lists Xaver Schlager (CM) and Suleman Sani (LW) as out, but their overall squad depth allows them to maintain their high performance levels.

Odds Analysis & Defensive Edges

The consensus odds have RB Leipzig favored by -1.5 with a total of O/U 3.5. The moneyline sits at -320 for Leipzig and +650 for St. Pauli. This spread reflects Leipzig's defensive solidity. Leipzig allows only 3.6154 clearances per game (Rank #2) and 2.2679 tackles per game (Rank #2), indicating they control possession and limit opposition chances. Conversely, St. Pauli allows 1.4651 fouls per game (Rank #4), suggesting they play a more aggressive but vulnerable style.

Player Props to Watch

• Joshua Kimmich Passes Attempted (Over 101.5 @ +100): Kimmich is a central midfield engine. Against St. Pauli's high-foul, high-clearance defense, expect Kimmich to accumulate significant pass volume.
• Manuel Neuer Goalie Saves (Over 2.5 @ +100): With St. Pauli averaging only 0.4 PPG, Neuer might not face many shots. However, their defense allows 2.6 PPG, meaning when they break, Neuer could be tested. The Over 2.5 is a value play given the potential for a few key saves in a close game.
• Michael Olise Shots Assisted (Over 3 @ +100): Olise is a creative force. If Leipzig attacks down the flanks, his shot assistance total is a strong prop to consider.

Best Bets

1. RB Leipzig -1.5: St. Pauli's 0-5 record and 0.4 PPG scoring rate make covering a -1.5 spread highly probable. Leipzig's defense (1.1 allowed) will likely keep the game score, while their offense (2.0 PPG) finds the net twice.
2. Joshua Kimmich Over 101.5 Passes Attempted: Leipzig's control of the game against a weaker opponent should lead to high possession stats for their primary playmaker.

Prediction

RB Leipzig is expected to win comfortably. The combination of St. Pauli's poor form (0-5 L10) and Leipzig's defensive ranking (#2 in clearances) points to a Leipzig victory. We predict a final score of RB Leipzig 3, FC St. Pauli 1. Leipzig's ability to score 2.0 PPG against a defense that allows 2.6 PPG suggests they will outscore St. Pauli by at least two goals, covering the -1.5 spread.

Updated Saturday, May 9, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →