Hamburger SV at VfB Stuttgart Odds, Picks & Prediction
VfB Stuttgart will win 3-1 over Hamburger SV. Stuttgart's home form (L10: 3-3, 2 PPG scored, 1.3 allowed) and Deniz Undav's 1 goal/game exploit HSV's nightmare injury crisis (11 outs including Grønbaek, Capaldo, Jatta, Poulsen) and poor L10: 0-3 record with L3 streak.
Quick Facts
- Matchup
- Hamburger SV at VfB Stuttgart
- Date
- Sunday, April 12, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
- Spread
- VfB Stuttgart -1.25
- Total
- O/U 3
- Moneyline
- VfB Stuttgart -225 / Hamburger SV +425
- Best Bet
- VfB Stuttgart -1.25
- Prediction
- VfB Stuttgart 3-1
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | away | home | line | market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +425 | -225 | -1.25 | Spread | |
| - | - | O/U 3 | Total | |
| +425 | -225 | - | Moneyline |
Matchup Preview
VfB Stuttgart welcomes struggling Hamburger SV to the MHPArena in Bundesliga action. The home side enters on a L2 streak but boasts a solid L10 record of 3-3, averaging 2 points per game (PPG) scored while allowing just 1.3 PPG. Key attackers like Deniz Undav (1 goals/game, high of 2) lead the charge, supported by Tiago Tomás (0.3 goals/game, high 1), Nikolas Nartey (0.3), Ermedin Demirovic (0.3), and midfielder Angelo Stiller.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, is in freefall with an L10 record of 0-3 and a L3 streak, scoring 1.3 PPG and allowing 1.7. Their defense ranks #2 in allowing fouls (1.6316/game to ALL positions), potentially leading to set-piece opportunities for Stuttgart.
By The Numbers
| Stat | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Record (L10) | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| PPG | 2 | 1.3 |
| Opp PPG | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
Key Injuries
Hamburger SV: Decimated with 11 outs - Albert Grønbaek (Attacking Midfield), Nicolás Capaldo (Central Midfield), Bakery Jatta (Right Winger), Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit (Left Winger), Fernando Dickes (Goalkeeper), Luka Vuskovic (Centre-Back), Omar Megeed (Attacking Midfield), Albert Sambi Lokonga (Central Midfield), Jean-Luc Dompé (Left Winger), Yussuf Poulsen (Centre-Forward) all out.
VfB Stuttgart: Dan-Axel Zagadou (Centre-Back), Jamie Leweling (Right Winger), Lazar Jovanovic (Right Winger), Badredine Bouanani (Right Winger), Josha Vagnoman (Right-Back) sidelined.
Consensus Odds Analysis
Books heavily favor Stuttgart: Spread VfB Stuttgart -1.25, Total O/U 3, Moneyline VfB Stuttgart -225 / Hamburger SV +425. The -225 ML reflects Stuttgart's edge at home against a crippled HSV side.
Player Props to Watch
- Stefan Posch Tackles Over/Under 2.5 (Over +100)
- Vincenzo Grifo Passes Attempted Over/Under 25.5 (Over +100)
- Phillip Tietz Passes Attempted Over/Under 23.5 (Over +100)
- Matthias Ginter Passes Attempted Over/Under 54.5 (Over +100)
- Kaishu Sano Passes Attempted Over/Under 36.5 (Over +100)
- Daniel Batz Passes Attempted Over/Under 33.5 (Over +100)
- Stefan Posch Clearances Over/Under 4.5 (Over +100)
- Philipp Lienhart Clearances Over/Under 5 (Over +100)
HSV's foul-prone defense (#2 rank, 1.6316/game) boosts tackle/clearance overs for defenders like Posch.
Best Bets
- VfB Stuttgart -1.25: HSV's 11 injuries gut their midfield/attack; Stuttgart's 2 PPG and Undav's scoring tear them apart.
- Over 3: Stuttgart 2 PPG + HSV 1.3 PPG totals 3.3 expected; HSV fouls lead to goals.
- Stefan Posch Over 2.5 Tackles (+100): HSV foul edge (#2 rank) means more defensive work.
Prediction
VfB Stuttgart dominates 3-1. HSV's injury apocalypse and 0-3 L10 can't match Stuttgart's firepower at home.
Updated Sunday, April 12, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →
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