Leeds United at Tottenham Hotspur Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United

On Monday, May 11, 2026, the Premier League sees Tottenham Hotspur host Leeds United at 3:00 PM ET. While the consensus odds favor Tottenham Hotspur at -0.5 with a moneyline of +105, the data suggests a tight contest defined by defensive resilience rather than offensive explosion.

Tottenham Hotspur enters this fixture with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, averaging just 1 goal per game. However, they are riding a three-game winning streak, suggesting their form is turning a corner. Leeds United, sitting at 3-5 in their last 10, comes in with an L1 streak but boasts a formidable defense that has allowed only 0.5 goals per game over that span.

The key to this matchup lies in Tottenham's ability to create chances versus Leeds' ability to stifle them. Spurs allow the most tackles (2.3864/game) and assists (0.1309/game) of any team, indicating they give up possession frequently. Leeds, despite missing key midfielders, has kept their defensive line tight, allowing only 0.5 goals per game.

By The Numbers

Stat	Tottenham Hotspur (Home)	Leeds United (Away)
Record (L10)	3-7	3-5
Goals Per Game	1.0	1.3
Goals Allowed Per Game	1.4	0.5
Current Streak	W3	L1
Defensive Rank (Tackles Allowed)	#1 (2.39/game)	N/A

Key Injuries Impacting the Lineup

Both sides are decimated by injuries, which significantly alters the tactical approach. Tottenham Hotspur is missing a staggering number of midfielders and defenders, including João Palhinha, Destiny Udogie, Ben Davies, and Radu Drăgușin. The absence of Palhinha is critical; he averages 0.3 goals/game and is key to breaking up play.

Leeds United is equally depleted in midfield, losing Anton Stach and Ilia Gruev. Their attack is also hit hard by the absence of Noah Okafor (who averages 1 goal/game) and Daniel James (0 goals/game). Without Okafor, Leeds relies heavily on Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.5 goals/game) to lead the line.

Odds Analysis

The spread is set at Tottenham Hotspur -0.5, with the total at O/U 2.5. The moneyline odds are surprisingly close, with Tottenham Hotspur at +105 and Leeds United at +240. This indicates that while the bookmakers see Spurs as slight favorites, they respect Leeds' defensive capabilities. The low total of 2.5 reflects the defensive nature of both teams, especially Leeds' 0.5 goals allowed per game.

Player Props to Watch

• João Palhinha Tackles Over/Under: 2 (+100). Despite being listed as Out, if he plays, his tackle rate is crucial. If he is indeed out, look for Conor Gallagher or Xavi Simons to step up in midfield.
• Destiny Udogie Tackles Over/Under: 1.5 (+100). Udogie is Out, so monitor who starts at LB. If Pedro Porro shifts or a new LB starts, the tackle prop may shift.
• Anton Stach Shots_assisted Over/Under: 2 (+100). Stach is Out. With Stach gone, Noah Okafor (also Out) or Dominic Calvert-Lewin may see more shots.
• James Justin Tackles Over/Under: 2 (+100). Justin is a key defender for Leeds and should see plenty of action against Spurs' attack.

Best Bets

1. Tottenham Hotspur -0.5: Spurs have won 3 straight. Even with injuries, their home advantage and recent form give them the edge in a low-scoring game.
2. Under 2.5 Goals: Leeds allows just 0.5 goals per game. Spurs average only 1.0. The defense-first approach from both sides points to a low-scoring affair.
3. Leeds United +240 Moneyline: Value pick. If Leeds' defense holds strong, they can steal a point or win outright. The odds offer significant value for an underdog.

Prediction

Tottenham Hotspur wins 2-1. Spurs' defensive vulnerabilities (allowing 1.4 goals/game) will likely result in Leeds scoring, but Spurs' recent winning streak and home field advantage should secure the narrow victory.

Updated Monday, May 11, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →