Liverpool at Aston Villa Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Liverpool at Aston Villa

The final Sunday of the 2025-26 EPL season brings a intriguing clash between Liverpool and Aston Villa. Despite Liverpool being the slight favorite on the moneyline (-109), the data suggests value lies with Aston Villa (+0.5). The home side has struggled significantly, posting a 1-6 record in their last 10 games and riding a four-game losing streak. However, they are averaging 0.7 points per game, which is low, but they have been competitive in several of those losses.

Liverpool comes into this fixture with a 5-5 record in their last 10, but they are currently on a three-game losing streak. Their scoring output has been decent at 1.8 PPG, but their defense has allowed 1.2 PPG. The key narrative here is Liverpool's inability to close out games on the road, making the half-point spread (+0.5) critical for Villa.

By The Numbers: Data Comparison

Stat	Aston Villa (Home)	Liverpool (Away)
Last 10 Record	1-6	5-5
Points Per Game (Scoring)	0.7	1.8
Points Allowed Per Game	1.4	1.2
Current Streak	L4	L3
Key Injury: Goalkeeper	Emiliano Martínez (Out)	Starters Expected

Key Injuries Impact

Aston Villa is decimated in midfield, missing Amadou Onana, Boubacar Kamara, Yuri Tielemans, and Harvey Elliott. Additionally, Emiliano Martínez is out for the season. This defensive midfield void could expose Villa's backline. However, Liverpool also lacks depth in attack, with Florian Wirtz only contributing 0.2 goals/game recently. The absence of Villa's primary ball-winner Onana might actually slow Liverpool's transition game, allowing Villa's defense to hold its shape.

Odds Analysis

The spread is set at Aston Villa +0.5 at a price of +235, while Liverpool is -109. The total is set at O/U 3.5. Given Liverpool's 1.8 PPG scoring average and Villa's 0.7 PPG, the total seems high. However, Villa's last 10 games have seen them lose frequently, often by narrow margins. The +0.5 spread protects Villa bettors in the event of a draw, which is a likely outcome given Liverpool's recent struggles to win consecutive games.

Player Props to Watch

• Mateus Fernandes Tackles (Over 2.5): +100 - With Villa missing Onana and Kamara, Fernandes will likely have to cover more ground. Liverpool allows clearances at rank #2, suggesting a physical midfield battle.
• Bruno Guimaraes Shots Assisted (Over 1.5): +100 - Guimaraes is a key playmaker. If Villa can break Liverpool's press, his vision should lead to multiple shot assists.
• Mateus Fernandes Passes Attempted (Over 46.5): +100 - Similar to the tackle prop, Fernandes' workload should increase in the absence of other midfielders.

Best Bets

1. Aston Villa +0.5 Spread: This is our top pick. Villa has covered the spread in several of their losses. Liverpool is vulnerable on the road, and the half-point gives Villa a safety net.
2. Mateus Fernandes Tackles Over 2.5: The statistical edge is clear. Villa's midfield is thin, and Fernandes will be tasked with disrupting Liverpool's attack more than usual.
3. Under 3.5 Total: While Liverpool scores 1.8 PPG, Villa only scores 0.7. The total is inflated by Liverpool's recent high-scoring games. We expect a tighter, more tactical match.

Prediction

We predict Aston Villa 2, Liverpool 1. Villa's home advantage and Liverpool's recent inability to secure wins will lead to a close contest. Ollie Watkins (1.1 goals/game) will likely find the back of the net, and the Villa defense, despite injuries, will hold off Liverpool's attack.

Updated Sunday, May 17, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →