Liverpool at Manchester United Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Liverpool vs Manchester United

The Premier League stage is set for Sunday, May 3, 2026, as Liverpool travels to Old Trafford to face Manchester United. While the consensus odds favor the home side with a -0.5 spread, the SportsClaw analytics platform identifies a significant value opportunity on the draw.

Manchester United enters this fixture in strong form, riding a three-game winning streak (W3) with a 5-3 record in their last 10 outings. They average 1.8 goals per game while allowing just 1.1. However, Liverpool is the hotter team, boasting a five-game winning streak (W5) and a superior 6-4 record over their last 10 matches. Liverpool’s offense is potent, averaging 2.1 goals per game, yet their defense has been equally stingy, allowing 1.1 goals per game.

Key Injuries Impacting the Lineup

Manchester United’s defensive depth is severely tested. The Red Devils are missing a staggering number of key defenders and midfielders, including Lisandro Martínez, Matthijs de Ligt, Leny Yoro, Patrick Dorgu, Noussair Mazraoui, and Kobbie Mainoo. Additionally, attacking midfielder Mason Mount and top scorer Matheus Cunha are listed as Out. Despite these absences, United's remaining squad has managed to maintain their scoring rate.

By The Numbers

Statistic	Manchester United (Home)	Liverpool (Away)
Last 10 Record	5-3	6-4
Goals Per Game (Scored)	1.8	2.1
Goals Per Game (Allowed)	1.1	1.1
Current Streak	W3	W5
Top Scorer (L10 Avg)	Casemiro (0.7)	Salah (0.7)

Odds Analysis & Model Pick

The consensus market has Manchester United as favorites with a -0.5 spread and +130 moneyline, while Liverpool sits at +165. The total is set at an interesting O/U 3.5. Given Liverpool’s 2.1 PPG and United's recent defensive injuries, an under on 3.5 might seem logical, but the model sees a tightly contested affair.

Model Pick: 1X2: Draw
The SportsClaw model assigns a 35.3% probability to the draw, compared to the market's implied 25.4%. This creates a massive +9.9% edge. With both teams averaging 1.1 goals allowed per game, and United's attack relying heavily on Casemiro (0.7 G/G) and Bruno Fernandes (0 G/G but high playmaking), a stalemate is highly probable.

Player Props to Watch

While the main focus is the match outcome, several player props offer value. Liverpool allows clearances at a rank #2 rate (3.375/game to all defenders). This makes clearances props on United's remaining defenders interesting. Additionally, look at passing volumes:

• Youri Tielemans Passes Attempted O/U 57.5 (+100): Tielemans is a key volume passer for United's midfield.
• Ezri Konsa Passes Attempted O/U 65.5 (+100): Konsa is involved in high-volume build-up play.
• Kevin Danso Clearances Over 6.5 (+100): With Liverpool averaging 2.1 goals, Danso is likely to be busy in the box.

Best Bets

1. 1X2: Draw (STRONG) - The +9.9% edge is the strongest signal in the data. Both teams are in excellent form but defensively solid.
2. Youri Tielemans Over 57.5 Passes Attempted (+100) - Tielemans is a central hub for United's midfield, especially with Mainoo out.
3. Liverland -0.5 (Underdog Value) - Liverpool's 5-game winning streak suggests they are the more disciplined side, making them attractive at +165 moneyline or the spread.

Prediction

Expect a tactical battle at Old Trafford. Manchester United's defensive absences will be mitigated by their current winning momentum, but Liverpool's attack, led by Mohamed Salah (0.7 G/G) and Florian Wirtz (0.3 G/G), is too dangerous to ignore. The model projects a 2-2 draw, capitalizing on the high probability of both teams finding the net.

Updated Sunday, May 3, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →