New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview

The Portland Trail Blazers host the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday night at 10:00 PM ET in a matchup that features two teams trending in opposite directions. Portland enters on a two-game winning streak and has gone 7-3 over their last 10 games, while New Orleans limps into the Rose City losers of five straight and just 4-6 in their last 10.

The Blazers have been dominant on both ends during this stretch, averaging 115.8 points per game while holding opponents to just 104.5 PPG — a net rating differential of +11.3 points. That defensive effort stands in stark contrast to the Pelicans, who have allowed 115.1 PPG over their last 10, surrendering nearly three more points per game than they score (112.3 PPG).

Head-to-head history further supports Portland. The Blazers have won three of the last five meetings, including a 122-109 road victory and a dominant 125-103 home win. Only one of those five contests was decided by fewer than 10 points.

Key Injuries

Both rosters are dealing with significant absences. Portland will be without Jerami Grant (18.9 PPG), Damian Lillard, and Shaedon Sharpe — three rotation players who represent a major chunk of offensive production. Guard Vít Krejci is also sidelined.

New Orleans loses Trey Murphy III (20.2 PPG), their second-leading scorer, along with Bryce McGowens. Murphy's absence strips the Pelicans of a reliable perimeter weapon who had reached as high as 28 points in a single game this season.

The injury ledger hurts both sides, but Portland's depth has proven more resilient. Deni Avdija (21.8 PPG, high of 32), Jrue Holiday (16.3 PPG, high of 35), Scoot Henderson (14.9 PPG), and Toumani Camara (13.7 PPG, high of 35) give the Blazers four double-figure scorers beyond Grant. New Orleans leans heavily on Zion Williamson (20.5 PPG) and Dejounte Murray (18.1 PPG) without Murphy in the lineup.

By The Numbers

Odds Analysis

Portland is installed as a 6.5-point home favorite with a moneyline of -260, implying roughly 72% win probability. New Orleans sits at +211 on the moneyline. The total is set at 231.5.

Given Portland's defensive efficiency (104.5 PPG allowed) and the Pelicans' defensive struggles (115.1 PPG allowed), the 231.5 total feels appropriately set. Portland's offense should have no trouble scoring against New Orleans' porous defense, but the Blazers' ability to limit opponents could keep this under the number.

Defense vs. Position Edges

Our DVP data reveals several exploitable angles. New Orleans allows the #2-ranked rebounds to centers (6.98 per game) and #2-ranked points to guards (11.12 per game), which bodes well for Portland's guard-heavy attack led by Holiday and Henderson. The Pelicans also rank #3 in points allowed to centers (10.66 per game) and #4 in three-pointers allowed to guards (1.13 per game).

On the other side, Portland allows the #1-ranked steals to forwards (0.92 per game) and #1-ranked steals to guards (1.02 per game), giving Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray potential opportunities in transition. However, Portland also allows the #2-ranked blocks to centers (1.14 per game), suggesting some interior vulnerability that Zion could attack.

Player Props to Watch

With Trey Murphy III sidelined, look for Zion Williamson to shoulder an even heavier load. He is averaging 20.5 PPG with a season-high of 27, and the Pelicans will need him to attack Portland's interior aggressively. Saddiq Bey (18.1 PPG, high of 25) should also see increased usage in Murphy's absence.

For Portland, Deni Avdija is the primary beneficiary of the Grant and Lillard absences. Averaging a team-high 21.8 PPG with a ceiling of 32, Avdija's points prop is worth targeting against New Orleans' defense that ranks #3 in assists allowed to forwards (2.0 per game), suggesting the Pelicans struggle to contain versatile wings.

Best Bets

• Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 (-110): The Blazers are 7-3 in their last 10, have won three of five head-to-head meetings (including a 22-point home blowout), and face a Pelicans squad mired in a five-game losing skid. Portland's +11.3 net rating over the last 10 games suggests they should cover comfortably.
• Under 231.5 (-110): Portland's defense has allowed just 104.5 PPG over their last 10, and both teams are missing key offensive pieces (Grant, Lillard, Sharpe for POR; Murphy for NOP). With reduced firepower on both sides, this total looks a shade high. Three of the last five head-to-head meetings finished under 225 combined points.
• Deni Avdija Over Points Prop: As Portland's top scorer at 21.8 PPG, Avdija will carry even more offensive responsibility without Grant (18.9 PPG) and Lillard. New Orleans allows the #2-ranked points to guards and has given up 115.1 PPG over their last 10. Avdija should feast.

Prediction

Portland's elite recent form, home-court advantage, and superior defensive metrics make them the clear pick despite missing Grant and Lillard. The Pelicans' five-game losing streak, negative net rating, and Murphy's absence leave them ill-equipped to compete on the road against a hot team. Expect Avdija, Holiday, and Henderson to lead a balanced Portland attack.

Final Score: Portland Trail Blazers 117, New Orleans Pelicans 108. Blazers cover the 6.5-point spread and the game stays under 231.5.

Updated Thursday, April 2, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →