Newcastle United at Nottingham Forest Odds, Picks & Prediction
Nottingham Forest is predicted to win 2-1 against Newcastle United. The home side's elite defense, allowing just 0.3 goals per game in their last 10, combined with Morgan Gibbs-White's 1 goal per game scoring rate, provides the edge over a Newcastle squad missing six key players.
Matchup Preview: Forest's Defense vs. Newcastle's Absences
In this Sunday, May 10, 2026, Premier League clash, Nottingham United hosts Newcastle United at a time when the home side is peaking. Nottingham Forest enters this fixture with a 4-2 record in their last 10 games and a two-game winning streak. Their offensive output is potent, averaging 2.5 points per game (PPG), while their defense is stifling, allowing just 0.3 goals per game.
Newcastle United, conversely, is struggling with a 3-7 record in their last 10 and an average of 1.2 PPG. While Newcastle allows only 1.4 goals per game, they have been hit hard by injuries, missing six key players including Bruno Guimarães, Anthony Gordon, and Fabian Schär. This depletion significantly weakens their midfield control and defensive stability.
Key Injuries Impacting the Lineup
The absence of Bruno Guimarães (Central Midfield) and Anthony Gordon (Left Winger) for Newcastle is critical. For Nottingham Forest, the loss of Chris Wood (Centre-Forward) and Murillo (Centre-Back) is notable, but their remaining defensive unit, led by the rank #2 shot-on-target prevention (0.3138/game to ALLs), remains formidable.
By The Numbers
| Stat | Nottingham Forest (Home) | Newcastle United (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Record (L10) | 4-2 | 3-7 |
| Scoring PPG | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Allowed PPG | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Current Streak | W2 | W2 |
| Goals/Game (Gibbs-White) | 1.0 | N/A |
| Goals/Game (Osula) | N/A | 0.8 |
Odds Analysis
The consensus odds present a 0 spread, indicating a tightly contested match where the market sees little separation. However, the moneyline favors Nottingham Forest at +152 compared to Newcastle's +188. The Total is set at O/U 2.5. Given Forest's defensive prowess (0.3 allowed PPG) and Newcastle's inability to score consistently (1.2 PPG), the under looks attractive, but Forest's home form suggests they can secure a narrow victory.
Player Props to Watch
- Morgan Gibbs-Home: With 1 goal per game, Gibbs-White is the focal point of Forest's attack.
- William Osula: Newcastle's top scorer with 0.8 goals per game.
- Mateus Fernandes Passes: Over 44.5 passes (+100) offers value given his role in midfield construction.
- Mads Hermansen Passes: Over 31.5 passes (+100) is a solid pick for the Forest goalkeeper.
Best Bets
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+152): The best value bet. Forest's defense is elite, and Newcastle is missing key playmakers.
- Under 2.5 Goals (-110 estimated): Forest allows 0.3 PPG, and Newcastle scores 1.2 PPG. A low-scoring affair is likely.
- Morgan Gibbs-White Anytime Goal Scorer: Averaging 1 goal per game, he is in form.
Prediction
Newcastle United at Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest 2, Newcastle United 1. Forest's home advantage and defensive solidity will overcome Newcastle's injury-plagued squad.
Updated Sunday, May 10, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →
Frequently Asked Questions
Data from 40+ sportsbooks tracked in real-time.
Get instant odds & props via our Telegram bot.