SC Freiburg at Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview

Borussia Dortmund enters this Bundesliga matchup as a clear home favorite at -245 on the moneyline, with SC Freiburg coming back at +600. The current spread sits at Borussia Dortmund -1.25, while the total is 3. From a form standpoint, Dortmund owns the more stable profile despite riding a three-match losing streak. Over its last 10, Dortmund is 5-3, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 goals allowed. Freiburg is 4-5 over its last 10, scoring 1.6 goals per match while conceding 1.7.

That difference in defensive efficiency is the headline number in this fixture. Dortmund is allowing just 1.1 goals per game across its recent sample, while Freiburg is giving up 1.7. Even though Freiburg brings a bit of momentum with a W2 streak, the market is pricing Dortmund as the superior side because the home club has shown a much better recent goal differential.

Dortmund’s attacking production has been led by Serhou Guirassy and Julian Brandt, each at 0.3 goals per game over the recent sample. Freiburg has gotten stronger short-term finishing from Johan Manzambi and Lucas Höler, who are both producing 0.7 goals per game. That creates a fascinating stylistic clash: Freiburg has the hotter individual scoring form up top, but Dortmund has been the more complete side overall.

By The Numbers

Defense vs Position Edges

The prop market gets interesting because Freiburg has allowed volume in a few key categories. SC Freiburg ranks #2 in shots allowed at 0.8893 per game to ALLs, #4 in clearances allowed at 3.2558, and #5 in shots on target allowed at 0.2976. Dortmund, meanwhile, ranks #3 in tackles allowed at 2.0465 per game to ALLs. Those defensive splits point toward active Dortmund possession and useful volume for defenders and full-backs in secondary markets.

Key Injuries

Dortmund has the longer injury list, with Niklas Süle, Karim Adeyemi, Yan Couto, Carney Chukwuemeka, Felix Nmecha, Filippo Mane, and Emre Can all listed as out. That is a meaningful hit to depth across the back line, midfield, and wide attacking areas.

Freiburg is also shorthanded, losing Max Rosenfelder, Patrick Osterhage, Lukas Kübler, and Daniel-Kofi Kyereh. The Rosenfelder and Kübler absences matter in a match where Dortmund is expected to drive possession and field tilt.

Odds Analysis

The spread of Dortmund -1.25 reflects respect for the home side, but it is not a cheap price given Dortmund’s L3 streak. From a pure statistical view, Dortmund deserves to be favored because its recent profile is stronger in both attack and defense: 1.8 scored versus Freiburg’s 1.6, and more importantly 1.1 allowed versus Freiburg’s 1.7. That said, the quarter-goal hook adds risk if Dortmund wins by only one.

The total at 3 is efficient. Dortmund’s recent matches average 2.9 combined goals using its scoring and allowed numbers, while Freiburg’s sample averages 3.3 combined goals. That places the market right between the two profiles, which makes the side more attractive than forcing a total position.

Player Props to Watch

Waldemar Anton over 78.5 passes attempted (+100) stands out in a game script where Dortmund should control more of the ball. Freiburg’s defensive profile suggests sustained pressure phases for Dortmund, and Anton could benefit from repeated recycling across the back.

Matthias Ginter over 7.5 clearances (+100) also deserves attention. Freiburg is the underdog, and if Dortmund pushes territorial control, Ginter could rack up defensive actions. That angle is supported by Freiburg allowing the #4 clearance environment at 3.2558 per game to ALLs.

Julian Ryerson over 2.5 shots assisted (+100) is a higher-variance look, but Freiburg allowing the #2 shots environment and #5 shots-on-target environment gives some upside to wide creation props. For a safer floor, Gregor Kobel over 2 saves (+100) is viable if Freiburg’s recent attacking form through Manzambi and Höler carries over.

Best Bets

• Borussia Dortmund moneyline (-245) — The cleanest position. Dortmund has the stronger recent record at 5-3, scores 1.8 per match, and allows only 1.1, while Freiburg has allowed 1.7 per game over its last 10.
• Matthias Ginter over 7.5 clearances (+100) — Dortmund should force Freiburg into plenty of defensive sequences, and the game script supports a high-clearance workload.
• Waldemar Anton over 78.5 passes attempted (+100) — If Dortmund controls possession as the home favorite, Anton has a path to strong volume in buildup.

Prediction

The numbers still point to Borussia Dortmund. Freiburg has the better current streak at W2, and the visitors do bring sharper short-term scoring form from Johan Manzambi and Lucas Höler at 0.7 goals per game each. But Dortmund has the stronger full-team profile, especially defensively, allowing only 1.1 goals per game across its last 10. In a match lined at -1.25, the safer call is the home win rather than chasing margin.

Projected score: Borussia Dortmund 2, SC Freiburg 1.

Updated Sunday, April 26, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →