STP at RB Leipzig Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: RB Leipzig vs STP

On Saturday, May 9, 2026, RB Leipzig hosts STP in a Bundesliga clash that highlights the disparity between a top-tier side and a struggling bottom-feeder. RB Leipzig enters the match with a solid 5-2 record in their last 10 games, averaging 2.0 points per game. In contrast, STP is mired in a deep slump, sitting at 1-9 in their last 10, including an eight-game losing streak.

While RB Leipzig recently lost their last outing (L1 streak), their underlying metrics remain robust. They allow just 1.1 points per game on defense. STP, however, struggles offensively, scoring only 0.6 points per game while conceding 2.0. The key to this matchup lies in Leipzig's defensive dominance; they rank #2 in the league for clearances (3.6154 per game) and #2 for tackles (2.2679 per game). This defensive pressure should stifle STP's attack, which lacks the firepower to break down elite units.

Key Injuries Impact

RB Leipzig is dealing with a significant injury crisis, losing 14 key players including Yan Diomande, Conrad Harder, Max Finkgrafe, and Christoph Baumgartner. Goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi and defender Willi Orbán are also out. Despite this depleted roster, the remaining squad has maintained a high standard of play. STP's lack of depth is compounded by Leipzig's ability to control possession, evidenced by player props favoring high pass counts for Leipzig's midfielders.

By The Numbers

The statistical gap between these two teams is stark. Leipzig's offensive output is nearly triple that of STP's. Furthermore, Leipzig's defense allows fewer than half the points per game compared to STP's leaky backline.

Odds Analysis

The consensus odds have RB Leipzig favored by -1.5 runs/goals, with the Over/Under set at 3.5. The moneyline heavily favors Leipzig. Given STP's 0.6 PPG average and Leipzig's ability to score 2.0 PPG, the total line of 3.5 is achievable by Leipzig alone. The -1.5 spread is justified by Leipzig's home-field advantage and their elite defensive metrics, which rank #2 in both clearances and tackles.

Player Props to Watch

• Joshua Kimmich Passes Attempted O/U 101.5 (+100): With Leipzig controlling possession against a weak STP side, Kimmich is poised to accumulate a high volume of passes.
• Manuel Neuer Passes Attempted O/U 36.5 (+100): Neuer's distribution will be key, especially with Leipzig pushing forward.
• Kamil Grabara Passes Attempted O/U 33.5 (+100): Grabara will need to distribute efficiently against Leipzig's high press.

Best Bets

• Best Bet: RB Leipzig -1.5 Spread
  The gap in form (5-2 vs 1-9) and the -1.5 line offer excellent value. Leipzig's defense allows only 1.1 PPG, while STP scores just 0.6. A 2-0 or 3-0 victory is highly probable.
• Secondary Bet: Over 3.5 Total
  While STP struggles to score, Leipzig averages 2.0 PPG. Leipzig scoring 2 or 3 goals is likely, pushing the total over the 3.5 line.

Prediction

RB Leipzig is expected to win comfortably. Despite injuries, their depth and elite defensive rankings (#2 in clearances and tackles) will neutralize STP's low-scoring offense. We predict a 3-0 victory for RB Leipzig, covering the -1.5 spread.