SUN at Everton Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview: Everton vs SUN

On Sunday, May 17, 2026, Everton hosts SUN at Goodison Park in a crucial EPL encounter. Both teams enter the match with identical 3-7 records in their last 10 games, but their trajectories differ significantly. Everton is riding a six-game losing streak (L6), desperate for a turnaround at home where they average 2 goals per game. SUN, meanwhile, is on a two-game losing skid (L2) and has struggled to score, managing only 1.1 points per game (PPG) over their last 10 outings.

The key to this matchup lies in Everton's offensive resurgence at home. With Beto leading the charge at 0.8 goals per game and James Tarkowski adding crucial defensive goals (0.4 GPG), the Toffees have the firepower to break through SUN's defense, which allows 2 goals per game. SUN's inability to keep clean sheets (allowing 2 PPG) makes them vulnerable to Everton's attacking trio of Beto, Barry, and Dewsbury-Hall.

By The Numbers

Here is a direct comparison of the two sides based on recent performance metrics:

Statistic	Everton (Home)	SUN (Away)
Last 10 Record	3-7	3-7
Scoring Average (PPG)	2.0	1.1
Opponent PPG	1.7	2.0
Current Streak	L6	L2
Top Scorer	Beto (0.8 GPG)	N/A (Team Avg 1.1)

Key Injuries

No significant injuries have been reported for either Everton or SUN heading into this fixture, ensuring that key contributors like Beto and the SUN midfield are available to play.

Odds Analysis

The consensus odds have Everton favored at -0.5, with the Over/Under set at 2.5 goals. While the moneyline odds are currently listed as even (-), the spread suggests a tight match. However, Everton's home scoring efficiency (2 PPG) vs. SUN's defensive leakiness (2 PPG allowed) points toward a low-scoring but decisive Everton victory. The 2.5 total is particularly interesting given Everton's recent struggles, but their home form suggests they can push the ball past the threshold.

Player Props to Watch

Several player props offer compelling value based on positional edges and recent form:

• Mateus Fernandes Tackles Over 2.5 (+100): Everton allows tackles at a rank #2 rate (2.3659/game to ALLs). Fernandes, a key midfielder for SUN, is well-positioned to exceed this mark against Everton's press.
• Bruno Guimaraes Tackles Over 2 (+100): With SUN averaging 2 goals against, the midfield battle will be intense. Guimaraes' defensive work rate makes the +100 odds on Over 2 tackles attractive.
• Mateus Fernandes Passes Attempted Over 46.5 (+100): As a primary ball distributor, Fernandes is expected to see significant possession against Everton's midfield.
• Bruno Guimaraes Shots Assisted Over 1.5 (+100): Guimaraes has been instrumental in creating chances, and the Over 1.5 shots assisted offers solid value given his playmaking role.

Best Bets

1. Everton -0.5 Spread: Everton's home scoring average of 2 PPG contrasts sharply with SUN's 1.1 PPG. The Toffees are due for a win after six straight losses, and the -0.5 line provides the best value on the board.
2. Mateus Fernandes Tackles Over 2.5 (+100): Leveraging Everton's rank #2 defensive tackle allowance (2.3659/game), Fernandes is statistically poised to exceed 2.5 tackles.
3. Bruno Guimaraes Shots Assisted Over 1.5 (+100): Guimaraes' creative output makes this prop a strong play against a SUN defense that concedes frequently.

Prediction

Everton will overcome their recent slump to secure a 2-1 victory over SUN. Beto's goal-scoring form (0.8 GPG) combined with SUN's defensive vulnerabilities (2 PPG allowed) will be the deciding factors.

Updated Sunday, May 17, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →