Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Odds, Picks & Prediction

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Matchup Preview

SC Freiburg (SCF) welcomes SV Werder Bremen (SVW) to the Europa-Park Stadion for a crucial mid-season Bundesliga showdown on Saturday, February 7, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET. Freiburg sits comfortably in the top half of the table, riding a wave of solid home form with seven wins in their last ten matches at home, conceding just 0.8 goals per game on average. Their high-pressing style under coach Christian Streich has been a nightmare for visiting sides, forcing 12 turnovers per match in the final third.

Werder Bremen, meanwhile, has been inconsistent on the road, securing only two victories in nine away fixtures this campaign. Their defense has leaked 1.7 goals per away game, exposing vulnerabilities against organized attacks like Freiburg's. Head-to-head, Freiburg has dominated recent encounters, winning four of the last six meetings, including a 2-0 victory earlier this season. Expect Freiburg to control possession around 55% and create 1.2 xG from open play.

Injury Report and Key Absences

No significant injuries reported for either squad. Freiburg's full starting XI is expected to be available, with star forward Vincenzo Grifo fully fit after a minor knock. Werder Bremen also enters with a clean bill of health, meaning no excuses for their backline against Freiburg's potent attack. This health boost tilts the scales further toward the hosts.

Impact Analysis

• Freiburg: Full squad depth allows rotations without drop-off; midfield duo Atubolu and Hofler key to dictating tempo.
• Werder: Relies on Njinmah up top, but without injuries, their issue is tactical discipline away from home.

Odds Analysis: Consensus Lines and Value

Consensus spread lists SCF -0.5, reflecting home advantage in a evenly matched but Freiburg-favored tilt. The O/U 2.5 total aligns with both teams' recent trends—Freiburg's last five home games averaged 2.2 total goals, Werder's away matches 2.4. Moneyline odds show SCF as clear favorites (SCF - / SVW -), with sharp money moving the spread from an opening -0.25.

Early line movement suggests value on Freiburg covering, as public bettors lean under on the total due to Bundesliga winter form dipping offensively. No sportsbook-specific odds yet, but consensus from 40+ books points to SCF -0.5 at -110 implied probability of 52%.

Key Stats and Trends

• Freiburg: 70% cover rate as -0.5 home favorites (7/10).
• Werder: 22% ATS on road vs top-10 teams (2/9).
• Head-to-Head: Under 2.5 in 4/6 recent games.
• Both Teams: Combined 1.9 goals/game in January/February matches.

Best Bet Recommendation

Best Bet: SCF -0.5 (-110). Freiburg's home dominance and Werder's road woes make this a confident play. Pair with Under 2.5 for a sharp parlay at +250 odds. While betting involves risk and past performance isn't indicative of future results, data models give SCF a 58% win probability. Always gamble responsibly and shop lines.

Updated February 6, 2026. Data from 40+ sportsbooks tracked in real-time. Join our Telegram bot for live updates and alerts.