Union Berlin at FSV Mainz 05 Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview

On Sunday, May 10, 2026, the Bundesliga sees FSV Mainz 05 host Union Berlin at 1:30 PM ET. The stakes are high for the home side, which enters the contest with a 4-3 record in their last ten games and a one-game winning streak. In contrast, Union Berlin is struggling significantly, sitting at 0-2 in their last two outings with a 0-2 record in their last ten, having gone scoreless (0 PPG) in their most recent match while allowing 2.5 goals per game.

FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.7 points per game (PPG) on offense and allows just 1.3 PPG defensively. This defensive solidity, combined with their ability to score consistently, makes them the clear favorite against an away team that is currently finding the net at a 0 PPG rate. With no significant injuries reported for either squad, the disparity in form is the defining factor.

By The Numbers

Stat	FSV Mainz 05 (Home)	Union Berlin (Away)
Record (Last 10)	4-3	0-2
Scoring PPG	1.7	0
Allowed PPG	1.3	2.5
Current Streak	W1	L2

Key Injuries

No significant injuries have been reported for either FSV Mainz 05 or Union Berlin. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups, keeping the form metrics above as the primary indicators of performance.

Odds Analysis

The consensus odds reflect Mainz's home-field advantage and recent success. FSV Mainz 05 is listed as a -0.75 spread favorite, meaning they must win by at least one goal to cover. The moneyline stands at -145 for Mainz, implying roughly a 59% implied probability of victory, while Union Berlin sits at +370. The Over/Under is set at 2.75 goals, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair, though Mainz's 1.7 PPG offense suggests they can outscore Union's 0 PPG slump.

Player Props to Watch

• Leopold Querfeld Passes_attempted: The Over/Under is set at 50.5 (Over +100). Given Mainz's possession-based approach at home, Querfeld is a strong candidate to exceed this threshold.
• Tom Rothe Assists: With an Over/Under of 0.5 assists at -867, the market heavily favors Rothe securing at least one assist, highlighting his creative role in Mainz's attack.
• Carl Klaus Goalie_saves: The line is set at 3.5 saves (Over +100). With Union Berlin averaging 0 PPG recently, the Over might offer value if Mainz maintains pressure.
• Stefan Posch Assists: Another heavy favorite, with the Over 0.5 assists priced at -681, indicating high confidence in his offensive contribution.

Best Bets

• FSV Mainz 05 -0.75: The safest bet on the board. Mainz's 4-3 form and 1.7 PPG offense against Union's 0-2 record and 0 PPG scoring drought make a home win highly probable.
• Tom Rothe Assists Over 0.5 (-867): The odds indicate strong market confidence in Rothe's ability to provide an assist, making it a solid prop play despite the low odds.
• Leopold Querfeld Passes_attempted Over 50.5 (+100): A value pick on the prop market. Querfeld is likely to be central to Mainz's midfield control against a Union side that is allowing 2.5 PPG.

Prediction

FSV Mainz 05 is expected to control the tempo and secure a narrow victory. Union Berlin's offensive struggles (0 PPG in recent form) will likely keep them off the scoreboard or limit them to a single goal. Mainz's defense, allowing only 1.3 PPG, should hold firm. The predicted score is 2-1 in favor of FSV Mainz 05.

Updated Sunday, May 10, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →