Werder Bremen at VfB Stuttgart Odds, Picks & Prediction

Matchup Preview

VfB Stuttgart enters Sunday’s Bundesliga matchup as a clear home favorite at -188 on the moneyline, and the market is backing the stronger attacking side. Stuttgart has averaged 2.2 goals per game over its last 10, compared to just 1.2 goals per game for Werder Bremen. That attacking gap is the biggest number on the board when projecting this match.

Recent form is not perfect for the hosts, though. Stuttgart is just 4-5 over its last 10 and arrives on a two-match losing streak. Bremen is 3-3 in its last six listed results and comes in off a W1 streak, while allowing only 1.2 goals per game. That makes this an interesting clash between Stuttgart’s higher ceiling and Bremen’s tighter defensive profile.

For Stuttgart, the attacking production starts with Chris Führich, who is averaging 0.7 goals per game, the highest figure among either side’s listed key players. Behind him, Angelo Stiller, Bilal El Khannouss, Chema Andrés, and Maximilian Mittelstädt are all contributing 0.3 goals per game. That spread matters because Stuttgart does not rely on one source alone.

Werder Bremen’s key scoring figure is Cameron Puertas at 0.5 goals per game, with Romano Schmid and Salim Musah each at 0.3. The issue for Bremen is that the overall team output still sits at 1.2 goals per game, exactly one full goal below Stuttgart’s recent scoring pace. In a match with a total of 3.25, that difference makes Stuttgart the more likely side to control the result.

By The Numbers

The table shows the core handicap: Stuttgart scores more, Bremen defends better, and the market still lands firmly with the home side. That usually points toward a narrow home win rather than a wide-open mismatch.

Key Injuries

Stuttgart’s injury list is notable, especially in defensive and wide areas. Dan-Axel Zagadou and Finn Jeltsch are both out at center-back, while Josha Vagnoman is out at right-back. On the wings, Jamie Leweling, Lazar Jovanovic, and Badredine Bouanani are all unavailable. Mirza Catovic is also out in defensive midfield.

That volume of absences is the main reason this does not grade as an easy Stuttgart spread cover. The host side has enough attacking depth to remain favored, but the defensive injuries create a path for Bremen to stay within one goal and potentially find the net once.

Odds Analysis

The consensus line of VfB Stuttgart -1 paired with a -188 moneyline suggests the market expects a win, but not necessarily a runaway. The 3.25 total is also telling. Stuttgart’s recent matches average 4.0 combined goals when combining its 2.2 scored and 1.8 allowed, while Bremen’s recent sample averages just 2.4 combined goals from 1.2 scored and 1.2 allowed. Those two profiles pull in opposite directions.

That split supports a tighter interpretation of the match than Stuttgart’s attack alone would suggest. The strongest case for the hosts is that they have the best individual scorer on the pitch in Führich and the broader secondary scoring support. The strongest case for Bremen is match control: lower event games, better recent defensive allowance, and Stuttgart injuries at the back.

Player Props to Watch

The listed prop board is unusual for this fixture, but a few numbers still stand out.

• Waldemar Anton over 78.5 passes attempted (+100) — If Stuttgart dominates territory as the favorite, volume from the back line can climb quickly. This line fits a script where the hosts control possession for long stretches.
• Waldemar Anton over 4.5 clearances (+100) — This is more game-script sensitive. If Bremen counters directly and forces defensive interventions, this number can get there even in a Stuttgart win.
• Matthias Ginter over 7.5 clearances (+100) — A high threshold, but worth watching in any match state where Stuttgart pushes the tempo and Bremen is forced into defensive box work.
• Matthias Ginter over 0.5 shots (-121) — The most straightforward plus-volume attacking prop on the board, especially if set pieces or sustained defending create second-ball chances.

Because the board is centered heavily on passes, clearances, and low-count event props, bettors should align prop exposure with their match script. If you expect Stuttgart to control the game, the passes market makes more sense. If you expect Bremen to defend deep for long stretches, clearances become more attractive.

Best Bets

1. VfB Stuttgart Moneyline (-188)

This is the cleanest way to back the stronger team. Stuttgart owns the better scoring profile at 2.2 goals per game, has the most productive listed scorer in Chris Führich at 0.7 goals per game, and carries home-favorite respect from the market.

2. Werder Bremen +1

If you want a side with more cushion, Bremen +1 has value against a Stuttgart team that is only 4-5 in its last 10 and dealing with multiple injuries, especially in defense. Bremen is allowing just 1.2 goals per game, which gives it a path to keep this within one score.

3. Waldemar Anton Over 78.5 Passes Attempted (+100)

Among the props listed, this one best matches the projected favorite script. If Stuttgart controls possession and pins Bremen back, center-back passing volume should be there.

Prediction

The best projection is VfB Stuttgart 2, Werder Bremen 1. Stuttgart’s attacking numbers are simply better, and the home side has more proven scoring support across its key contributors. Bremen’s defensive form and Stuttgart’s injury list should keep this competitive, but over 90 minutes the host side still has the stronger route to three points.

Updated Sunday, April 26, 2026. All odds and stats powered by SportsClaw — real-time data from 40+ sportsbooks. Get picks on Telegram →